Shock Index in Pregnancy: Haemorrhage and sepsis Risk Evaluation. Shock index as a predictor of adverse outcome in maternal haemorrhage and sepsis.
THE PROBLEM TO ADDRESS
Bleeding and infection cause over half of maternal deaths worldwide. Most of these are preventable with simple interventions. But the majority of these deaths happen in lower-income settings where monitoring equipment is limited, and signs of deterioration are not detected in time to prevent the development of serious, life-threatening complications.
Our team found that shock index (SI), calculated by dividing heart rate into systolic blood pressure, is an early predictor of poor outcome in pregnant women.
We studied a group of women in South Africa with postpartum haemorrhage and sepsis and there were no maternal deaths, emergency hysterectomies or major surgical interventions in the group with SI <0.9 (green). SI 0.9 to 1.69 (amber) and SI ≥1.7 (red) indicated increased risk of all adverse outcomes with a four-fold greater risk of requiring blood transfusion ≥4IU in the red versus amber group (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.3 to 14.4).
These SI thresholds have been incorporated into the CRADLE Vital Signs Alert device algorithm, and correspond to the green, amber and red traffic lights, with a downward-pointing arrow.
THE PROJECT
SIPHRE study prospectively evaluated whether these established SI thresholds maintain their predictive ability in pregnant and postpartum women with signs of sepsis or bleeding admitted to Princess Christian Maternity Hospital (PCMH) in Freetown, Sierra Leone.
Our main study objectives were to:
- Validate SI as a predictor of adverse outcome following obstetric haemorrhage or sepsis in PCMH.
- Evaluate the feasibility of implementation of the CRADLE VSA to reduce rates of maternal haemorrhage and sepsis through measurement of SI.
- Collect data that could inform a future prospective trial into the effects on adverse outcomes of incorporating SI into early warning scores used to assess women with sepsis and obstetric haemorrhage.
Research Publications
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Evaluating shock index for prediction of adverse maternal outcomes related to postpartum haemorrhage and maternal sepsis in Sierra Leone: a prospective observational cohort study
Khurt, K, Janneh, F, Cole, R, Ridout, A, Fernandez-Turienzo, C, Seed, P, Bramham, K, Shennan, A.. November 2025. Introduction: Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) and sepsis account for more than half of global maternal deaths. Shock index (SI), the ratio of heart rate to systolic blood pressure, has shown superior prediction of adverse outcomes compared to other vital signs, but most studies are retrospective, with limited evidence in sepsis. We aimed to prospectively evaluate SI for adverse outcome prediction in PPH and sepsis..
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Shock index thresholds to predict adverse outcomes in maternal hemorrhage and sepsis: A prospective cohort study
Hannah L. Nathan | Paul T. Seed | Natasha L. Hezelgrave | Annemarie De Greeff | Elodie Lawley | John Anthony | Wilhelm Steyn | David R. Hall | Lucy C. Chappell | Andrew H. Shennan. Received: 12 September 2018 | Accepted: 8 April 2019. Introduction: Shock index (SI) is a predictor of hemodynamic compromise in obstetric patients. The SI threshold for action is not well understood. We aimed to evaluate SI thresholds as predictors of outcomes in obstetric patients.
The Team
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